| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.1% | 40% | +4.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 77.9% | 80% | -2.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 53.1% | 52% | +0.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 72% | -15.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.5% | 24.4% | 25.0% |
| xgboost | 37.4% | 30.2% | 32.4% |
| logistic | 23.3% | 16.9% | 59.8% |
| Graafschap | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1419 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1419 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 2718 | 523 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Jong Ajax Amsterdam | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Utrecht | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 2 | D |
| 27 Sep | H | FC Den Bosch | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | NAC Breda | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Volendam | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Heracles | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | FC Emmen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 - 3 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |