OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ England FA Cup · Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Milton Keynes Dons 2.40 2 - 1 1.60 Swindon
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 58.9%67%-8.2%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 81.3%88%-7.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 75.7%84%-8.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.2%64%-7.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 57.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson51.3%23.8%24.9%
xgboost64.2%19.1%16.7%
logistic62.6%23.0%14.4%
Inputs the models saw
Milton Keynes DonsSwindon
Elo (pre-match)15431455
Surface Elo15431455
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.60
Form trend-0.30-0.60
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)7 W1 W · 2 D
Milton Keynes Dons: last 5
31 OctHDoncaster6 - 1W
31 OctHDoncaster6 - 1W
27 OctHBromley4 - 1W
27 OctHBromley4 - 1W
27 OctHWatford3 - 1W
Swindon: last 5
31 OctHRotherham2 - 1W
31 OctHRotherham2 - 1W
24 OctABristol Rovers0 - 0D
24 OctABristol Rvs0 - 0D
20 OctABarnet3 - 1W
Head to head
14 Mar 2026Swindon1 - 2Milton Keynes Dons
26 Dec 2025Milton Keynes Dons1 - 0Swindon
03 May 2025Swindon0 - 0Milton Keynes Dons
09 Nov 2024Milton Keynes Dons3 - 1Swindon
17 Feb 2024Swindon1 - 2Milton Keynes Dons
28 Oct 2023Milton Keynes Dons3 - 2Swindon
24 Apr 2021Milton Keynes Dons5 - 0Swindon
29 Dec 2020Swindon1 - 4Milton Keynes Dons
09 Feb 2019Milton Keynes Dons2 - 3Swindon
01 Sep 2018Swindon1 - 1Milton Keynes Dons
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away6.0016.7%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.7021.3%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.4967.1%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5664.1%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4041.7%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC