| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.0% | 76% | -15.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| logistic | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Axel Nefve | Alec Beckley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1389 | 1469 |
| Surface Elo | 1389 | 1469 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Alec Beckley | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Feb | A | Alan Raul Sau Franco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Feb | H | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Jul | H | Patrick Zahraj | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Max Houkes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Niklas Grunewald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Axel Nefve | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Jun | H | Tuncay Duran | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Jun | H | Dominik Palan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Axel Nefve | 1 - 2 | Alec Beckley |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.32 | 75.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 06 Oct 06:15 |