| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.3% | 63% | -15.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 81% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.2% | 80% | -18.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 65% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.9% | 25.3% | 41.7% |
| xgboost | 28.4% | 28.6% | 43.0% |
| logistic | 25.4% | 27.2% | 47.4% |
| Bolton | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1562 | 1643 |
| Surface Elo | 1562 | 1643 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Southampton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Southampton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Blackburn | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 7 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Cardiff | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Cardiff | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Stoke | 3 - 2 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Stoke | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Apr 2019 | Bolton | 0 - 2 | Middlesbrough |
| 19 Sep 2018 | Middlesbrough | 2 - 0 | Bolton |
| 26 Dec 2017 | Middlesbrough | 2 - 0 | Bolton |
| 09 Sep 2017 | Bolton | 0 - 3 | Middlesbrough |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.30 | 18.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |