| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.5% | 54% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| logistic | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Alejandro Moro Canas | Alexander Ritschard | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1674 | 1693 |
| Surface Elo | 1674 | 1693 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Sander Jong | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Pedro Vives Marcos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Bruno Pujol Navarro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | David Naharro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Ryan Nijboer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Miguel Damas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Iannis Miletich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Sebastian Ofner | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Roberto Carballes Baena | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 04 Oct 06:15 |