| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.1% | 57% | +2.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.7% | 81% | +3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 79.2% | 75% | +4.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 43% | +9.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.8% | 23.9% | 20.3% |
| xgboost | 68.9% | 19.1% | 12.1% |
| logistic | 63.4% | 22.8% | 13.8% |
| Lyon | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1743 | 1609 |
| Surface Elo | 1743 | 1609 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Crystal Palace | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Lens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Lens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rennes | 4 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Paris FC | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Strasbourg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Strasbourg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Lille | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Auxerre | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Le Mans | 1 - 1 | D |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Lyon | 2 - 0 | Nice |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Nice | 3 - 2 | Lyon |
| 09 Mar 2025 | Nice | 0 - 2 | Lyon |
| 01 Dec 2024 | Lyon | 4 - 1 | Nice |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Lyon | 1 - 0 | Nice |
| 27 Aug 2023 | Nice | 0 - 0 | Lyon |
| 03 Jun 2023 | Nice | 3 - 1 | Lyon |
| 11 Nov 2022 | Lyon | 1 - 1 | Nice |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Lyon | 2 - 0 | Nice |
| 24 Oct 2021 | Nice | 3 - 2 | Lyon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 18 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 18 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 18 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 18 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.89 | 25.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.89 | 25.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.98 | 50.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 18 Oct 06:15 |