| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.8% | 47% | +5.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| logistic | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Alexander Bublik | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1934 | 1931 |
| Surface Elo | 1934 | 1931 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 10 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Fabian Marozsan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Alexander Zverev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Alexander Bublik | 2 - 1 | Karen Khachanov |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Alexander Bublik | 2 - 1 | Karen Khachanov |
| 24 Aug 2020 | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 2 | Karen Khachanov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |