| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.4% | 39% | +10.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.6% | 78% | -2.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.5% | 54% | +8.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 55% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.6% | 28.0% | 32.4% |
| xgboost | 31.5% | 23.9% | 44.6% |
| logistic | 24.3% | 28.1% | 47.5% |
| Port Vale | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1394 | 1492 |
| Surface Elo | 1394 | 1492 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.71 | 1.44 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.43 | 1.44 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| Rest days | 21 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 6 W · 2 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Mansfield | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Walsall | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Walsall | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Exeter | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Burton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Shrewsbury | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Port Vale | 2 - 2 | Grimsby |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Grimsby | 3 - 0 | Port Vale |
| 01 May 2021 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Port Vale |
| 09 Jan 2021 | Port Vale | 3 - 0 | Grimsby |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Grimsby | 5 - 2 | Port Vale |
| 26 Dec 2018 | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | Grimsby |
| 06 Oct 2018 | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | Port Vale |
| 10 Mar 2018 | Grimsby | 1 - 1 | Port Vale |
| 07 Oct 2017 | Port Vale | 1 - 2 | Grimsby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.96 | 51.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |