OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
⚽ England Championship · Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
West Ham 2.20 2 - 3 2.00 Southampton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.3%58%-4.2%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 80.8%81%-0.7%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 72.6%75%-2.4%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 56.3%38%+18.6%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 53.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson52.2%22.4%25.4%
xgboost56.0%25.8%18.2%
logistic57.1%25.6%17.2%
Inputs the models saw
West HamSouthampton
Elo (pre-match)17021677
Surface Elo17021677
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.202.00
Form trend-0.200.10
Season points per game2.001.75
Season goals for / game2.500.75
Season goals against / game0.750.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W1 W · 4 D
West Ham: last 5
17 OctASwansea1 - 0W
17 OctASwansea1 - 0W
14 OctALincoln6 - 0W
14 OctALincoln6 - 0W
13 OctABraintree Town4 - 2W
Southampton: last 5
17 OctHBolton0 - 0D
17 OctHBolton0 - 0D
14 OctANorwich1 - 0W
14 OctANorwich1 - 0W
13 OctABoston Utd6 - 5W
Head to head
19 Apr 2025West Ham1 - 1Southampton
26 Dec 2024Southampton0 - 1West Ham
02 Apr 2023West Ham1 - 0Southampton
16 Oct 2022Southampton1 - 1West Ham
26 Dec 2021West Ham2 - 3Southampton
11 Sep 2021Southampton0 - 0West Ham
23 May 2021West Ham3 - 0Southampton
29 Dec 2020Southampton0 - 0West Ham
29 Feb 2020West Ham3 - 1Southampton
14 Dec 2019Southampton0 - 1West Ham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.4922.3%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.4122.7%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7258.1%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5166.2%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.6537.7%23 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:03 UTC