| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.7% | 62% | -14.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.8% | 85% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.4% | 80% | -16.6% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 48% | +6.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.8% | 26.5% | 25.7% |
| xgboost | 41.9% | 31.2% | 27.0% |
| logistic | 44.6% | 28.6% | 26.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1565 | 1540 |
| Surface Elo | 1565 | 1540 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 6 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Bolton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Bolton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Gateshead | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 2 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Southampton | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.47 | 18.3% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.31 | 23.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.63 | 61.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.76 | 56.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |