| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.8% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| DC | Home or away | 77.5% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.4% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.3% | 23.9% | 23.8% |
| xgboost | 48.0% | 21.7% | 30.3% |
| logistic | 50.2% | 26.8% | 22.9% |
| Arouca | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1566 | 1476 |
| Surface Elo | 1566 | 1476 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 22 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Sporting | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Sp Lisbon | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Santa Clara | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Estoril | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Maritimo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | UD Sousense | 3 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | AD Castro Daire | 0 - 3 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | CD Cinfaes | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Academico Viseu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Academico Viseu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Arouca | 1 - 0 | Estrela |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Estrela | 3 - 1 | Arouca |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Arouca | 1 - 0 | Estrela |
| 09 Dec 2024 | Estrela | 2 - 1 | Arouca |
| 05 May 2024 | Arouca | 0 - 0 | Estrela |
| 28 Dec 2023 | Estrela | 1 - 4 | Arouca |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||