| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 65% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.8% | 85% | -0.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 79.2% | 80% | -0.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 80% | -25.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 68.4% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| xgboost | 60.8% | 23.1% | 16.1% |
| logistic | 60.3% | 23.8% | 15.9% |
| Stuttgart | Heidenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1690 | 1523 |
| Surface Elo | 1690 | 1523 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Regensburg | 3 - 3 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Hoffenheim | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | H | FC Koln | 4 - 1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Bayern München | 1 - 5 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Bielefeld | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Bielefeld | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Greuther Furth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Dresden | 5 - 3 | W |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Heidenheim | 3 - 3 | Stuttgart |
| 05 Oct 2025 | Stuttgart | 1 - 0 | Heidenheim |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Stuttgart | 0 - 1 | Heidenheim |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Heidenheim | 1 - 3 | Stuttgart |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Stuttgart | 3 - 3 | Heidenheim |
| 05 Nov 2023 | Heidenheim | 2 - 0 | Stuttgart |
| 29 Jan 2020 | Stuttgart | 3 - 0 | Heidenheim |
| 04 Aug 2019 | Heidenheim | 2 - 2 | Stuttgart |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.90 | 20.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.25 | 80.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 4.00 | 25.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |