OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Gillingham 2.00 0 - 0 1.00 Newport County
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 46.3%49%-2.5%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 72.7%77%-4.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 62.3%67%-4.5%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.2%56%-2.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 53.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson45.2%27.4%27.4%
xgboost38.8%34.7%26.5%
logistic39.9%29.5%30.7%
Inputs the models saw
GillinghamNewport County
Elo (pre-match)14051364
Surface Elo14051364
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.00
Form trend0.20-0.70
Season points per game1.502.00
Season goals for / game1.501.00
Season goals against / game1.500.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W6 W · 0 D
Gillingham: last 5
26 SepAYork0 - 3L
26 SepAYork0 - 3L
22 SepHCambridge1 - 4L
19 SepHBristol Rvs3 - 0W
19 SepHBristol Rovers3 - 0W
Newport County: last 5
26 SepHGrimsby2 - 1W
26 SepHGrimsby2 - 1W
22 SepASwindon2 - 0W
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
Head to head
17 Jan 2026Gillingham3 - 2Newport County
20 Sep 2025Newport County1 - 3Gillingham
04 Mar 2025Newport County3 - 1Gillingham
22 Oct 2024Gillingham0 - 2Newport County
17 Feb 2024Newport County1 - 0Gillingham
28 Oct 2023Gillingham0 - 2Newport County
29 Apr 2023Gillingham1 - 2Newport County
19 Nov 2022Newport County2 - 0Gillingham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.5028.6%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5028.6%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.0548.8%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9551.3%02 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8055.6%02 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:10 UTC