| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.9% | 63% | +1.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| logistic | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| Zsombor Piros | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1761 | 1615 |
| Surface Elo | 1761 | 1615 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Zsombor Piros |
| 11 May 2026 | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | Zsombor Piros |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |