OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-24

🎾 ATP Lyon, France Men Singles · Saturday 24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC · finished

Tommy Paul 1.80 0 - 1 1.80 Taylor Fritz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	52.1%	66%	-13.7%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	42.9%	57.1%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	49.5%	50.5%
logistic	53.9%	46.1%

Inputs the models saw

	Tommy Paul	Taylor Fritz
Elo (pre-match)	2017	1981
Surface Elo	2017	1981
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	-0.30
Season points per game	2.14	1.80
Season goals for / game	1.57	1.60
Season goals against / game	0.86	0.80
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	3 W · 0 D

Tommy Paul: last 5

24 Oct	A	Taylor Fritz	0 - 2	L
23 Oct	A	Corentin Moutet	2 - 1	W
23 Oct	A	Corentin Moutet	2 - 1	W
21 Oct	A	Benjamin Bonzi	2 - 1	W
21 Oct	A	Benjamin Bonzi	2 - 1	W

Taylor Fritz: last 5

24 Oct	H	Tommy Paul	2 - 0	W
23 Oct	A	Daniel Altmaier	2 - 0	W
23 Oct	A	Daniel Altmaier	2 - 0	W
22 Oct	A	Pierre Hugues Herbert	2 - 0	W
22 Oct	A	Pierre Hugues Herbert	2 - 0	W

Head to head

24 Oct 2026	Taylor Fritz	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
21 Feb 2026	Taylor Fritz	0 - 2	Tommy Paul
12 Feb 2024	Taylor Fritz	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
27 Feb 2023	Taylor Fritz	1 - 2	Tommy Paul
21 Mar 2022	Taylor Fritz	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
08 Nov 2021	Taylor Fritz	0 - 2	Tommy Paul
25 Oct 2021	Taylor Fritz	2 - 0	Tommy Paul

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.52	65.8%	24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.65	37.7%	24 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:03 UTC