OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-11
🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:10 UTC · finished
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2.40 2 - 1 1.80 Frances Tiafoe
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 52.0%52%+0.1%✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
markov50.8%49.2%
poisson37.1%35.2%
xgboost51.2%48.7%
logistic48.9%51.1%
Inputs the models saw
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaFrances Tiafoe
Elo (pre-match)19932034
Surface Elo19932034
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.80
Form trend0.300.00
Season points per game2.502.00
Season goals for / game1.831.33
Season goals against / game0.500.67
Rest days22
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W3 W · 0 D
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: last 5
11 OctHFrances Tiafoe2 - 1W
09 OctHJenson Brooksby2 - 0W
09 OctHJenson Brooksby2 - 0W
01 OctHMatteo Berrettini1 - 2L
01 OctHMatteo Berrettini1 - 2L
Frances Tiafoe: last 5
11 OctAAlejandro Davidovich Fokina1 - 2L
09 OctAYannick Hanfmann2 - 0W
09 OctHPaterne Mamata2 - 0W
02 OctAArthur Fils0 - 2L
02 OctAArthur Fils0 - 2L
Head to head
11 Oct 2026Alejandro Davidovich Fokina2 - 1Frances Tiafoe
17 Mar 2025Alejandro Davidovich Fokina0 - 2Frances Tiafoe
24 Feb 2025Alejandro Davidovich Fokina2 - 1Frances Tiafoe
12 Aug 2024Alejandro Davidovich Fokina0 - 2Frances Tiafoe
25 Apr 2022Alejandro Davidovich Fokina1 - 2Frances Tiafoe
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.9252.1%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.9351.8%10 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC