OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-14
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · scheduled
Crewe 1.40 15:00 1.60 Newport County
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 42.9%48%-4.7%
DCHome or away 73.1%76%-3.1%
DNBHome (DNB) 58.0%66%-8.0%
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.8%54%-0.5%
BTTSBTTS no 51.2%no line
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson50.0%26.1%23.8%
xgboost39.5%27.9%32.6%
logistic34.0%29.8%36.2%
Inputs the models saw
CreweNewport County
Elo (pre-match)14781402
Surface Elo14781402
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.401.60
Form trend0.700.10
Season points per game1.501.63
Season goals for / game1.381.25
Season goals against / game1.630.75
Rest days1414
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Crewe: last 5
10 NovHWigan1 - 2L
07 NovHAFC Wimbledon2 - 1W
31 OctHBarnet1 - 1D
31 OctHBarnet1 - 1D
24 OctAChesterfield1 - 5L
Newport County: last 5
07 NovHWalsall3 - 1W
03 NovHCrystal Palace1 - 2L
30 OctHChesterfield4 - 1W
30 OctHChesterfield4 - 1W
24 OctACheltenham0 - 1L
Head to head
29 Dec 2025Newport County2 - 0Crewe
10 Dec 2025Crewe2 - 2Newport County
08 Feb 2025Crewe0 - 3Newport County
28 Sep 2024Newport County2 - 1Crewe
29 Dec 2023Newport County1 - 1Crewe
15 Aug 2023Crewe4 - 2Newport County
08 May 2023Newport County2 - 2Crewe
02 Dec 2022Crewe1 - 2Newport County
24 Aug 2019Newport County1 - 0Crewe
12 Jan 2019Crewe3 - 2Newport County
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.5028.6%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4029.4%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1047.6%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9052.6%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8454.4%12 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 21:43 UTC