| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.9% | 25% | +33.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 83.2% | 80% | +3.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 66.3% | 34% | +31.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 49% | +6.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.8% | 29.8% | 39.4% |
| xgboost | 36.7% | 24.6% | 38.8% |
| logistic | 33.8% | 32.7% | 33.5% |
| Alcorcon | Gimnastic | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1425 | 1391 |
| Surface Elo | 1425 | 1391 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 839 | 2660 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 02 Jun | H | Burgos | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 May | A | Levante | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 May | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 May | A | Ferrol | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 May | A | Cartagena | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Jun | H | Lugo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Jun | A | Alcorcon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 May | H | Elche | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 May | A | Cordoba | 3 - 4 | L |
| 11 May | H | Mallorca | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Jun 2019 | Alcorcon | 0 - 1 | Gimnastic |
| 15 Oct 2018 | Gimnastic | 1 - 3 | Alcorcon |
| 25 Mar 2018 | Alcorcon | 1 - 0 | Gimnastic |
| 22 Oct 2017 | Gimnastic | 0 - 3 | Alcorcon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.66 | 60.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |