| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 62% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.5% | 84% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.7% | 78% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 71% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 65.5% | 19.3% | 15.2% |
| xgboost | 46.6% | 29.0% | 24.4% |
| logistic | 52.8% | 25.9% | 21.3% |
| Bournemouth | Plymouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1740 | 1597 |
| Surface Elo | 1740 | 1597 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Chelsea | 1 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Chelsea | 1 - 5 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Liverpool | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Newcastle | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Newport County | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Leyton Orient | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Leyton Orient | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 12 Oct 06:15 |