| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.7% | 72% | -13.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 38.6% | 61.3% |
| logistic | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| Lautaro Midon | Thiago Seyboth Wild | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1700 | 1757 |
| Surface Elo | 1700 | 1757 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Murkel Dellien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| 12 Mar 2023 | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |