| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.8% | 50% | -2.7% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or away | 74.6% | 80% | -5.6% | abandoned |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.1% | 67% | -3.6% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 69% | -14.3% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.7% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 27.1% | 35.7% |
| xgboost | 54.2% | 21.5% | 24.3% |
| logistic | 48.0% | 29.8% | 22.1% |
| Vitesse | Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1426 | 1409 |
| Surface Elo | 1426 | 1409 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| Rest days | 902 | 2734 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 02 Nov | A | Jong Ajax Amsterdam | 1 - 1 | D |
| 28 Oct | A | VVV Venlo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | FC Emmen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Volendam | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Oct | A | Volendam | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Waalwijk | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Oct | A | Jong Ajax Amsterdam | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Utrecht | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 May 2019 | Vitesse | 6 - 1 | Graafschap |
| 23 Dec 2018 | Graafschap | 2 - 2 | Vitesse |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 08 Nov 06:15 |