| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.1% | 74% | -10.0% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.8% | 89% | -3.6% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.7% | 87% | -5.4% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 80% | -22.6% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.6% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 63.1% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| xgboost | 66.8% | 17.3% | 15.9% |
| logistic | 73.4% | 17.6% | 9.0% |
| Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1931 | 1806 |
| Surface Elo | 1931 | 1806 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 28 Oct | H | Magdeburg | 6 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Freiburg | 3 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Freiburg | 3 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Arsenal | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | RB Leipzig | 6 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Werder Bremen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Sabah Masazir | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 0 | D |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 3 | Bayern München |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Bayern München | 2 - 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 - 1 | Bayern München |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Bayern München | 0 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 04 Nov 2023 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 4 | Bayern München |
| 01 Apr 2023 | Bayern München | 4 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 08 Oct 2022 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 2 | Bayern München |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Bayern München | 3 - 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 04 Dec 2021 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 3 | Bayern München |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.72 | 13.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.54 | 15.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.25 | 80.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 4.10 | 24.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |