| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.8% | 67% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 56.0% | 43.9% |
| logistic | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Braden Shick | Erik Arutiunian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1584 | 1472 |
| Surface Elo | 1584 | 1472 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 50 | 36 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | H | J.J. Wolf | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Erik Arutiunian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Jul | H | Mark Lajal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | A | Andy Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Jul | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Masamichi Imamura | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Sanhui Shin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 May | H | Justin Boulais | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Feb | A | Cannon Kingsley | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Braden Shick | 2 - 0 | Erik Arutiunian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 15 Sep 09:05 |