| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.2% | 45% | +14.7% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| logistic | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Novak Djokovic | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2121 | 2042 |
| Surface Elo | 2121 | 2042 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 3 W 路 0 D |
| 04 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Bu Yunchaokete | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Yunchaokete Bu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Nuno Borges | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Jan Lennard Struff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 3 | Novak Djokovic |
| 27 Feb 2023 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Novak Djokovic |
| 02 Jan 2023 | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | Novak Djokovic |
| 14 Nov 2022 | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | Novak Djokovic |
| 03 Oct 2022 | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | Novak Djokovic |
| 01 Nov 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | Novak Djokovic |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 3 - 0 | Novak Djokovic |
| 08 Feb 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 3 | Novak Djokovic |
| 16 Nov 2020 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Novak Djokovic |
| 06 Jan 2020 | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | Novak Djokovic |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.74 | 57.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| 1xBet | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.16 | 46.3% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| 888sport | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.67 | 59.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| 888sport | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.20 | 45.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.70 | 58.8% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.16 | 46.3% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.77 | 56.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.28 | 43.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Daniil Medvedev | 1.78 | 56.2% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Novak Djokovic | 2.30 | 43.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.70 | 58.8% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.22 | 45.1% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betsson | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.69 | 59.2% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Betsson | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.14 | 46.7% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.70 | 58.8% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.17 | 46.1% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| GTbets | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.63 | 61.4% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| GTbets | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.28 | 43.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.63 | 61.4% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.28 | 43.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Marathon Bet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.71 | 58.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Marathon Bet | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.12 | 47.2% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.77 | 56.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.28 | 43.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Daniil Medvedev | 1.78 | 56.2% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Novak Djokovic | 2.30 | 43.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.69 | 59.2% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.14 | 46.7% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.74 | 57.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.21 | 45.2% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.56 | 64.1% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.18 | 45.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.72 | 58.1% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| Tipico | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.70 | 58.8% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Tipico | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.05 | 48.8% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.72 | 58.1% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.05 | 48.8% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.63 | 61.4% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.28 | 43.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.63 | 61.4% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.28 | 43.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.67 | 59.9% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.20 | 45.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.72 | 58.1% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.20 | 45.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.70 | 58.8% | 05 Oct 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Novak Djokovic | 2.15 | 46.5% | 05 Oct 06:00 |