| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 65% | -6.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.8% | 35.1% |
| logistic | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | Pedro Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1723 | 1626 |
| Surface Elo | 1723 | 1626 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Petr Nesterov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Luca Nardi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | August Holmgren | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 0 - 1 | Pedro Martinez |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 0 - 2 | Pedro Martinez |
| 27 Mar 2023 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 0 - 2 | Pedro Martinez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |