| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 42.5% | 43% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 76% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.3% | 60% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 58% | -5.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 28.1% | 26.8% | 45.1% |
| xgboost | 41.4% | 25.0% | 33.5% |
| logistic | 38.9% | 29.6% | 31.5% |
| Ceuta | Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1442 | 1512 |
| Surface Elo | 1442 | 1512 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.56 | 1.56 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.89 | 1.22 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.22 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Sabadell | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Sabadell | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Dos Hermanas CF 1971 | 0 - 5 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Eibar | 3 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Eldense | 1 - 4 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Eldense | 1 - 4 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Sp Gijon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Sporting Gijon | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 18 Oct 13:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |