| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.4% | 61% | +6.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 90.1% | 85% | +5.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 87.3% | 78% | +8.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 62% | -4.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 76.1% | 14.8% | 9.1% |
| xgboost | 66.2% | 21.4% | 12.3% |
| logistic | 73.7% | 19.0% | 7.3% |
| Ac Milan | Catanzaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1786 | 1411 |
| Surface Elo | 1786 | 1411 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Oct | A | Pavonese | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Udinese | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Udinese | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Club Milano SSD | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Oct | A | Bournemouth | 0 - 3 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Benevento | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | A | Benevento | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Ascoli | 1 - 6 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Ascoli | 1 - 6 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Verona | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.40 | 22.7% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 28 Oct 06:15 |