| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 73.7% | 76% | -2.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 18.8% | 81.1% |
| logistic | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| Alejandro Tabilo | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1822 | 2012 |
| Surface Elo | 1822 | 2012 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 24 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Sep | H | Alexei Popyrin | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 3 | L |
| 04 Sep | A | Alexander Bublik | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Dino Prizmic | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Coleman Wong | 3 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| 02 Oct 2024 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| 17 Jun 2024 | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.31 | 76.3% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |