OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-06

🎾 tennis_atp_china_open · Tuesday 06 October 2026, 11:00 UTC · scheduled

Novak Djokovic 2.40 11:00 2.40 Alex De Minaur

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	67.6%	65%	+2.3%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	76.9%	23.1%
logistic	65.2%	34.8%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Novak Djokovic	Alex De Minaur
Elo (pre-match)	2133	1997
Surface Elo	2133	1997
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	-0.60	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	1 W · 0 D

Novak Djokovic: last 5

06 Oct	A	Alex De Minaur	1 - 0	W
05 Oct	H	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	W
04 Oct	A	Alexander Zverev	2 - 1	W
04 Oct	A	Alexander Zverev	2 - 1	W
02 Oct	A	Bu Yunchaokete	2 - 1	W

Alex De Minaur: last 5

06 Oct	H	Novak Djokovic	0 - 1	L
05 Oct	H	Hubert Hurkacz	1 - 0	W
05 Oct	H	Hubert Hurkacz	1 - 0	W
04 Oct	H	Andrey Rublev	2 - 1	W
04 Oct	H	Andrey Rublev	2 - 1	W

Head to head

06 Oct 2026	Alex De Minaur	0 - 1	Novak Djokovic
30 Jun 2025	Alex De Minaur	1 - 3	Novak Djokovic
08 Apr 2024	Alex De Minaur	0 - 2	Novak Djokovic
01 Jan 2024	Alex De Minaur	2 - 0	Novak Djokovic
16 Jan 2023	Alex De Minaur	0 - 3	Novak Djokovic

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.65	37.7%	06 Oct 06:00
1xBet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.52	65.8%	06 Oct 06:00
888sport	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.50	40.0%	06 Oct 06:00
888sport	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.53	65.4%	06 Oct 06:00
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.55	39.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.52	65.8%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.74	36.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.57	63.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alex de Minaur	2.76	36.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Novak Djokovic	1.58	63.3%	06 Oct 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.57	38.9%	06 Oct 06:00
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.56	64.1%	06 Oct 06:00
Betsson	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.50	40.0%	06 Oct 06:00
Betsson	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.51	66.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.52	39.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Coolbet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.53	65.4%	06 Oct 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.62	38.2%	06 Oct 06:00
GTbets	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.55	64.5%	06 Oct 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.60	38.5%	06 Oct 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.50	66.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Marathon Bet	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.60	38.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Marathon Bet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.49	67.1%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.74	36.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.57	63.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alex de Minaur	2.76	36.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Novak Djokovic	1.58	63.3%	06 Oct 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.50	40.0%	06 Oct 06:00
Nordic Bet	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.51	66.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.59	38.6%	06 Oct 06:00
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.56	64.1%	06 Oct 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.45	40.8%	06 Oct 06:00
PMU (FR)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.43	69.9%	06 Oct 06:00
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.60	38.5%	06 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.53	65.4%	06 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.55	39.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Tipico	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.45	69.0%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.65	37.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.47	68.0%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.60	38.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.50	66.7%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.60	38.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.50	66.7%	06 Oct 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.50	40.0%	06 Oct 06:00
William Hill	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.53	65.4%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.60	38.5%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.54	64.9%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alex de Minaur	2.55	39.2%	06 Oct 06:00
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Novak Djokovic	1.50	66.7%	06 Oct 06:00

Generated 2026-10-30 18:18 UTC