| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.6% | 36% | +12.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 77% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.3% | 52% | +11.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 46.5% | 60% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 52.5% | 27.0% | 20.5% |
| xgboost | 41.3% | 24.5% | 34.1% |
| logistic | 44.9% | 22.7% | 32.4% |
| Perugia | Reggiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1415 | 1366 |
| Surface Elo | 1415 | 1366 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1226 | 141 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | US Grosseto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Salernitana | 6 - 0 | W |
| 19 May | H | Benevento | 3 - 2 | W |
| 13 May | A | Venezia | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 May | H | Cagliari | 0 - 5 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Latina Calcio | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sudtirol | 0 - 0 | D |
| 08 May | H | Sampdoria | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 May | A | Modena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Apr | H | Palermo | 1 - 1 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.68 | 59.5% | 27 Sep 06:15 |