| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.0% | 42% | +7.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.3% | 75% | -0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.8% | 57% | +5.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 56% | -1.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 28.4% | 27.2% | 44.4% |
| xgboost | 32.3% | 32.3% | 35.4% |
| logistic | 30.8% | 26.9% | 42.3% |
| Sunderland | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1684 | 1763 |
| Surface Elo | 1684 | 1763 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Accrington | 3 - 3 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Manchester City | 3 - 5 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Arsenal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Arsenal | 3 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Coventry | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Leeds | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Chelsea | 3 - 4 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Aston Villa | 4 - 0 | W |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Sunderland | 0 - 1 | Brighton |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Brighton | 0 - 0 | Sunderland |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.61 | 27.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.06 | 32.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.78 | 56.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |