| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.5% | 44% | +7.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 48.1% | 51.8% |
| logistic | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Tallon Griekspoor | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1820 | 1808 |
| Surface Elo | 1820 | 1808 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 24 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Denis Shapovalov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 09 Aug | A | Daniel Merida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Aug | A | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Aug | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | A | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Luca Van Assche | 3 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Miomir Kecmanovic | 3 - 1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | Rafael Jodar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| 20 May 2024 | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |