| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.8% | 70% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 29.8% | 70.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 33.3% | 66.6% |
| logistic | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Carlos Sanchez Jover | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1558 | 1688 |
| Surface Elo | 1558 | 1688 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Yanaki Milev | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Francesco Forti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Ryan Nijboer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | Marvin Moeller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.46 | 68.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |