| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.6% | 73% | -10.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.4% | 71.5% |
| logistic | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Sander Jong | Darwin Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1601 | 1714 |
| Surface Elo | 1601 | 1714 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Aidan Mayo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Wolf, Jeffrey John | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Lui Maxted | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Kenta Miyoshi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Darwin Blanch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Mees Rottgering | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Daniel Milavsky | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Sander Jong | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Darwin Blanch | 2 - 0 | Sander Jong |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.37 | 73.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |