| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.9% | 43% | +4.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 76% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.9% | 59% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 57% | +2.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.8% | 23.3% | 25.9% |
| xgboost | 32.2% | 29.2% | 38.6% |
| logistic | 40.1% | 28.8% | 31.1% |
| Catanzaro | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1442 | 1483 |
| Surface Elo | 1442 | 1483 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Cosenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sampdoria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Sampdoria Genoa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Carrarese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Sudtirol | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Pisa | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Sampdoria | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Cesena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Empoli | 3 - 1 | W |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Catanzaro | 2 - 0 | Mantova |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Mantova | 1 - 3 | Catanzaro |
| 13 May 2025 | Mantova | 0 - 0 | Catanzaro |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Catanzaro | 2 - 2 | Mantova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |