| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.9% | 67% | -3.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| logistic | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| Adrian Mannarino | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1722 | 1943 |
| Surface Elo | 1722 | 1943 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 10 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Roman Safiullin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Roman Safiullin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Alexander Blockx | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Sep | H | Tristan Schoolkate | 3 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | Flavio Cobolli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |