| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.4% | 78% | -6.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| logistic | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| Alex De Minaur | Alex Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1987 | 1775 |
| Surface Elo | 1987 | 1775 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Federico Cina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Vit Kopriva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 May 2022 | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | Alex Molcan |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |