| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.1% | 51% | -7.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 73.2% | 80% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.5% | 70% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 55% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.7% | 25.3% | 56.1% |
| xgboost | 36.5% | 19.8% | 43.7% |
| logistic | 29.8% | 42.9% | 27.3% |
| Brackley Town | Chester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1327 | 1369 |
| Surface Elo | 1327 | 1369 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.57 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 196 | 3115 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Worksop Town | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Spalding United | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Radcliffe FC | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Hednesford Town | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Spennymoor Town FC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Hednesford Town | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Marine FC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | South Shields | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Bedford Town Football Club | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Spennymoor Town FC | 1 - 4 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.30 | 30.3% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.90 | 52.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |