| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.0% | 41% | +3.4% | |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 73% | +1.2% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 57.2% | 57% | -0.1% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 57% | -3.0% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.7% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.9% | 28.8% | 36.3% |
| xgboost | 39.4% | 27.4% | 33.2% |
| logistic | 45.2% | 29.2% | 25.6% |
| Vallecano | Celta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1633 | 1641 |
| Surface Elo | 1633 | 1641 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 5 D |
| 27 Oct | A | RC Recreativo de Huelva | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | CD Colonia Moscardo | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Elche | 0 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Elche | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Getafe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Betis | 0 - 0 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Betis | 0 - 0 | D |
| 22 Oct | A | Celtic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Celta | 3 - 0 | Vallecano |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Vallecano | 1 - 1 | Celta |
| 18 May 2025 | Celta | 1 - 2 | Vallecano |
| 10 Jan 2025 | Vallecano | 2 - 1 | Celta |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Celta | 0 - 0 | Vallecano |
| 11 Dec 2023 | Vallecano | 0 - 0 | Celta |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Celta | 3 - 0 | Vallecano |
| 10 Nov 2022 | Vallecano | 0 - 0 | Celta |
| 05 Feb 2022 | Celta | 2 - 0 | Vallecano |
| 01 Nov 2021 | Vallecano | 0 - 0 | Celta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.11 | 32.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.37 | 29.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.49 | 40.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.77 | 56.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |