| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.2% | 54% | +4.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| logistic | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Tristan Boyer | Timo Legout | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1641 | 1586 |
| Surface Elo | 1641 | 1586 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Sebastian Gorzny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Spencer Johnson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Sebastian Gorzny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Spencer Johnson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Colton Smith | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Daniel Milavsky | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Daniil Ostapenkov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Timo Legout | 2 - 1 | Tristan Boyer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.90 | 52.6% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |