OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-26
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Swindon 1.20 1 - 1 1.00 Accrington
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 51.2%47%+4.1%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 75.4%75%+0.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 67.2%64%+3.1%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 45.8%56%-10.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 52.8%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson53.3%24.0%22.7%
xgboost43.1%29.7%27.1%
logistic40.0%29.8%30.3%
Inputs the models saw
SwindonAccrington
Elo (pre-match)14521342
Surface Elo14521342
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.201.00
Form trend0.30-0.10
Season points per game0.001.00
Season goals for / game0.000.00
Season goals against / game1.000.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Swindon: last 5
22 SepHNewport County0 - 2L
19 SepASalford0 - 1L
19 SepASalford0 - 1L
12 SepAYork0 - 4L
05 SepHColchester3 - 1W
Accrington: last 5
22 SepHSunderland3 - 3D
19 SepHNewport County0 - 0D
19 SepHNewport County0 - 0D
12 SepABarnet1 - 2L
05 SepHCrawley Town3 - 2W
Head to head
18 Apr 2026Swindon2 - 2Accrington
18 Oct 2025Accrington4 - 0Swindon
22 Mar 2025Swindon0 - 0Accrington
16 Nov 2024Accrington2 - 2Swindon
12 Mar 2024Swindon1 - 2Accrington
28 Nov 2023Accrington3 - 4Swindon
06 Mar 2021Accrington2 - 1Swindon
17 Nov 2020Swindon0 - 3Accrington
05 May 2018Swindon3 - 0Accrington
06 Feb 2018Accrington2 - 1Swindon
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.2031.2%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5028.6%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1546.5%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7756.5%25 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9850.5%25 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:28 UTC