| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 65.3% | 78% | -12.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| logistic | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Felix Auger Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1836 | 1968 |
| Surface Elo | 1836 | 1968 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Sep | H | Karen Khachanov | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Rinky Hijikata | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Aug | H | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Feb 2020 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 2 - 0 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.29 | 77.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.75 | 26.7% | 11 Oct 06:15 |