| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.6% | 42% | +8.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| logistic | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Max Alcala Gurri | Pol Martin Tiffon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1651 | 1641 |
| Surface Elo | 1651 | 1641 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Sep | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Eliakim Coulibaly | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Jonas Forejtek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Tommaso Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Tommaso Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Max Alcala Gurri | 1 - 0 | Pol Martin Tiffon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 25 Sep 06:15 |