| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.3% | 67% | -7.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| logistic | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Timo Legout | Igor Marcondes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1586 | 1535 |
| Surface Elo | 1586 | 1535 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | A | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Colton Smith | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Daniel Milavsky | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Daniil Ostapenkov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Federico Agustin Gomez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Ozan Baris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Nishesh Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 1 | Timo Legout |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |