| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.3% | 57% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.8% | 83% | -4.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.9% | 76% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 51% | +8.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.4% | 28.9% | 39.6% |
| xgboost | 19.6% | 26.0% | 54.4% |
| logistic | 16.4% | 24.1% | 59.5% |
| Ayr | Partick | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1490 | 1664 |
| Surface Elo | 1490 | 1664 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 5 W · 4 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Dunfermline | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Dunfermline | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Livingston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Livingston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Stenhousemuir | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Livingston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Livingston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Arbroath | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Arbroath | 3 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Raith Rvs | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep 2026 | Partick | 1 - 0 | Ayr |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Ayr | 1 - 1 | Partick |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Partick | 2 - 1 | Ayr |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Ayr | 0 - 0 | Partick |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Partick | 2 - 1 | Ayr |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Partick | 2 - 0 | Ayr |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Ayr | 2 - 1 | Partick |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Partick | 1 - 0 | Ayr |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Ayr | 1 - 1 | Partick |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Partick | 0 - 0 | Ayr |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.73 | 57.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.50 | 22.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.77 | 56.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |