| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.0% | 62% | +6.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 75.6% | 24.3% |
| logistic | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Daniel Michalski | Laurent Lokoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1551 | 1530 |
| Surface Elo | 1551 | 1530 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Crisostomo, G | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | A | Kilian Feldbausch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 May | H | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 May | A | Federico Agustin Gomez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 May | A | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |