| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.9% | 65% | -8.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| logistic | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Yanaki Milev | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1591 | 1596 |
| Surface Elo | 1591 | 1596 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.31 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.62 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.69 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Maximus Jones | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Pavel Lagutin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Federico Iannaccone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Michael Vrbensky | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | Yanaki Milev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.53 | 65.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |