| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.0% | 50% | +12.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.7% | 80% | +5.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.0% | 70% | +7.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 40.9% | 60% | -19.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 43.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.5% | 30.6% | 24.8% |
| xgboost | 43.9% | 31.5% | 24.6% |
| logistic | 43.3% | 30.2% | 26.6% |
| Las Palmas | Burgos | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1577 | 1562 |
| Surface Elo | 1577 | 1562 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 8 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 20 Sep | A | CD Linares | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Cadiz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Leganes | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Girona | 2 - 5 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Ceuta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Ceuta | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Oviedo | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | Sociedad B | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Sp Gijon | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Cordoba | 3 - 2 | W |
| 07 Feb 2026 | Las Palmas | 0 - 0 | Burgos |
| 07 Sep 2025 | Burgos | 0 - 0 | Las Palmas |
| 06 Feb 2023 | Burgos | 0 - 0 | Las Palmas |
| 01 Nov 2022 | Las Palmas | 0 - 2 | Burgos |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Las Palmas | 0 - 2 | Burgos |
| 20 Sep 2021 | Burgos | 0 - 0 | Las Palmas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 20 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 20 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.70 | 58.8% | 20 Sep 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.66 | 60.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |