| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 40.7% | 41% | -0.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 71.5% | 77% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.4% | 58% | -1.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 54% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.5% | 31.2% | 25.3% |
| xgboost | 35.3% | 28.8% | 35.9% |
| logistic | 37.7% | 29.6% | 32.7% |
| Carrarese | Sampdoria | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1391 | 1395 |
| Surface Elo | 1391 | 1395 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 01 Nov | A | Verona | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Verona | 0 - 3 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Arezzo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Arezzo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Palermo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Virtus Entella | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Ascoli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Sudtirol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | Arezzo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Avellino | 1 - 4 | L |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Carrarese | 2 - 0 | Sampdoria |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Sampdoria | 3 - 2 | Carrarese |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Carrarese | 1 - 0 | Sampdoria |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Sampdoria | 1 - 1 | Carrarese |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 08 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 08 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 08 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 08 Nov 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 08 Nov 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.93 | 51.8% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 08 Nov 06:15 |