| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.8% | 50% | +6.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.7% | 43.0% |
| xgboost | 41.8% | 57.4% |
| logistic | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Montréal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1527 | 1620 |
| Surface Elo | 1527 | 1620 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 7 - 0 | W |
| 29 Apr | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 3 - 2 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 2 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 - 5 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 2 | W |
| 30 May | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 - 6 | L |
| 28 May | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 0 - 4 | L |
| 26 May | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 May | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Dec 2025 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 4 - 3 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 4 - 0 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 12 Dec 2025 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2 - 4 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 13 Dec 2024 | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 9 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 - 1 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 14 Oct 2024 | Montréal Canadiens | 3 - 6 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.02 | 49.5% | 03 Oct 21:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.88 | 53.2% | 03 Oct 21:20 |